Gallup: If Election Were Today, GOP Would Win House

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The Millenial Perspective

Date: 11/4/2009 11:01:21 AM

Elijah Friedeman, the Millennial Perspective

Gallup released some poll results recently that showed Democrats hold a 46%-44% lead when people were asked whether they would vote for the Republican or Democrat in their congressional district. This doesn't seem to bode too well for Republicans, although it seems to put the Republicans within striking distance.

What you don't realize until you actually read into the article is that Gallup is actually predicting a major Republican victory in 2010. Gallup created a model predicting how the percentages would translate into actual seats.

The aggregated national vote in and of itself does not directly determine the election outcome since that vote is spread out over 435 districts, some of which are highly competitive while others are not competitive at all. The focus of House election results is the tally of the number of seats won by each party. Still, the national vote has proven to be highly correlated with the eventual seat distribution by party in the House of Representatives. This allows Gallup to use the generic ballot to make predictions about the eventual Democratic-Republican seat distribution and the likelihood of either party's having control after the election.

The results are surprising.

House Seat predictions

According to Gallup, if the election were held today, Democrats would end up with 186-208 House seats. Gallup's best prediction is that the Democrats would win 197 seats. A party must have 218 seats to hold the majority in congress. This means that the GOP has a good chance to take back the House in 2010.

A lot can change in the year between now and the 2010 elections, but if the Republicans can hold steady in their support or even increase it, we could be looking at a GOP controlled House after 2010.

Contact: themillennialperspective@gmail.com

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=============== COMMENTS ===============

11/4/2009 5:24:59 PM
There are a lot of seats presumed to be safe for Democrats, that aren't.

11/4/2009 4:22:37 PM
The republicans need to get a strong idea of the values and ideals they represent and stick to them. Anyone who doesn't want to represent those ideals can choose to switch parties or become independent, but it would solidify the party

11/4/2009 3:51:17 PM
The democrat party is the evil party they are for homosexuals and killing unborn humans. Using our tax dollars to kill unborn humans is in the health care bill. The democrats just passed a bill to protect ungodly homosexuals by tacking it on the defense bill to supply our troops. THE DEMOCRATS PARTY IS THE EVIL PARTY. Late-term abortionist Leroy Carhart was standing with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi when she announced her new "health care" bill. He wants to make sure that there will be taxpayer-funded abortions, including partial birth abortions. Few understand that the United States is one of only a handful of nations in which abortion is a major industry. Germany has one-third the abortions as does the United States, and late term abortions are virtually impossible to obtain in Europe. The democrats are coming from the dark side they are the evil party.